Sample output: a Firm Flexibility Capacity assessment
The flexibility of the fleet to sustain flex up (export), for the window 1am to 2pm,
from to , is:
Firm Flexibility Capacity
Sustained for the whole window
- Avg FFC / day
- 12.4 MW
- Min FFC across the window
- 11.2 MW
- Confidence
- 97.0% (P95)
Commitments
- Commitments that reduce the FFC
- 7.6 MW
- Dispatch probability any commitment
- 7%
- Potential penalty: commitments
- −A$542
- Potential penalty: released capacity
- −A$7,700
Cover
- Cover on file
- 6 MW
- Costliest remaining shortfall
- 1.6 MW
- Residual exposure
- −A$820
- Dispatch probability of remaining shortfall
- 2%
An excerpt of the full output. The figures are illustrative.
Also in the full output
FFC recommendation
The capacity you can commit, charted against your book and the network limit, and against what a common forecasting algorithm would give you.
Where the megawatts went
From nameplate to firm capacity, step by step: fleet behaviour, confidence derating, commitments sold, days released.
Commitments and residual risk
Every commitment's fulfilment, standby, dispatch and penalty, and the loss you remain exposed to, with a verdict.
Confidence breakdown
How the confidence holds for flex up, flex down and energy: the worst miss, the average miss, and how often.
Forecast error
How far the fleet came in from the forecast: our model against the common forecasting algorithm, the mean of the last five like days.
What it costs to not believe in luck
The capacity held back because assets fail together, measured rather than assumed away.
One saved FFC against another
Any two assessments side by side, figure by figure.
Provenance
The model, dataset, settings and seed behind every figure.